Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.43 – 121.2

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

403 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 122.9 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 576.2 ±11.7

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 55.14Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 83.43Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 24.86Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.1 ±16.5

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 54.92Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2207Bright Bears

Provisional

Season APEX 75Event APEX -17.15Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2502Talon Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 83.43Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3100, 2052, 3883

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3100, 2052, 3883

Auto

25.7 16%

Teleop

90.0 55%

Endgame

47.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2526, 2207, 2502

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2526, 2207, 2502

Auto

15.0 12%

Teleop

74.7 60%

Endgame

34.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score163.4pts

Blue projected score121.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.2
Score range: 92–192
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 161.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

576.2Season APEX261.1

25.7Auto15

90Teleop74.7

47.7Endgame34.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	21
teleop	255	64
endgame	60	30
foul	0	0
total	403	115

Result

Final score

403 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 122.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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