Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.14 – 151.14

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

303 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 122.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.4 ±11.7

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 99.03Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 6.93Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 10.18Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.1 ±12.8

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 6Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4198RoboCats

Season APEX 104.5Event APEX 79.14Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8234Panthinators

Season APEX 103Event APEX 66Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2472, 6147, 2129

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2472, 6147, 2129

Auto

23.6 20%

Teleop

68.1 59%

Endgame

24.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3630, 4198, 8234

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3630, 4198, 8234

Auto

27.2 18%

Teleop

89.4 59%

Endgame

34.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.1pts

Blue projected score151.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35
Score range: 89–178
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 150.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429.4Season APEX361.1

23.6Auto27.2

68.1Teleop89.4

24.4Endgame34.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	41
teleop	165	125
endgame	69	38
foul	15	5
total	303	209

Result

Final score

303 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 122.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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