Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.2 – 61.47

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197 ±14.5

4693Talk Nerdy to Me

Season APEX 49Event APEX -1.55Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6217Bomb-Botz

Season APEX 60Event APEX 7.74Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2129Ultraviolet

Season APEX 88Event APEX 45.01Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.2 ±15.6

3883Data Bits

Season APEX 91.8Event APEX 50.16Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 3.16Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3291Au Pirates

Provisional

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 8.15Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4693, 6217, 2129

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4693, 6217, 2129

Auto

17.0 32%

Teleop

15.8 30%

Endgame

19.9 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3883, 2169, 3291

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3883, 2169, 3291

Auto

28.3 46%

Teleop

29.4 48%

Endgame

3.2 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.2pts

Blue projected score61.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.3
Score range: 22–90
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 159.3.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197Season APEX279.2

17Auto28.3

15.8Teleop29.4

19.9Endgame3.2

35Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	23
teleop	16	50
endgame	9	14
foul	0	0
total	44	87

Result

Final score

44 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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