Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

377.39 – 295.18

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

321 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 66.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 695.6 ±11.7

10950The Northern Knights

Season APEX 179.8Event APEX 25.27Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 179.07Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 173.05Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 443.5 ±12.2

2526Crimson Robotics

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 47.28Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 129.64Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 118.26Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10950, 4655, 2052

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10950, 4655, 2052

Auto

69.4 19%

Teleop

218.7 59%

Endgame

83.9 23%

Strengths

· 4655 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2526, 3293, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2526, 3293, 2472

Auto

51.3 18%

Teleop

150.1 52%

Endgame

87.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score377.4pts

Blue projected score295.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.2
Score range: 267–405
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 539 vs event baseline 158.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

695.6Season APEX443.5

69.4Auto51.3

218.7Teleop150.1

83.9Endgame87

5Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	58
teleop	205	88
endgame	58	72
foul	0	0
total	321	218

Result

Final score

321 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 66.8 pts

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