Minnesota State High School League Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

575.47 – 403.68

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

590 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 779.9 ±10.4

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 141.68Rank 11Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 181.15Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 252.64Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 653.4 ±10.4

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 51.44Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 189.84Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 162.4Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2883, 2052, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

575.5 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2883, 2052, 7028

Auto

127.3 22%

Teleop

333.3 58%

Endgame

113.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3082, 2491, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3082, 2491, 4174

Auto

90.0 23%

Teleop

213.2 54%

Endgame

89.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.64 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score575.5pts

Blue projected score403.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171.8
Score range: 343–636
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1055 vs event baseline 340.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

779.9Season APEX653.4

127.3Auto90

333.3Teleop213.2

113.9Endgame89.4

88Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	156	119
teleop	277	246
endgame	157	100
foul	0	0
total	590	465

Result

Final score

590 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts