Minnesota State High School League Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

259.69 – 393.9

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

312 – 433

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.1 ±10.4

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 85.12Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 143.26Rank 5Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 31.31Rank 31Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 653.4 ±10.4

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 48.83Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 187.69Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 157.38Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3276, 3297, 3277

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3276, 3297, 3277

Auto

109.0 42%

Teleop

111.0 43%

Endgame

38.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3082, 2491, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.9 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3082, 2491, 4174

Auto

74.8 19%

Teleop

221.3 57%

Endgame

89.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score259.7pts

Blue projected score393.9pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.2
Score range: 200–454
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 745 vs event baseline 331.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603.1Season APEX653.4

109Auto74.8

111Teleop221.3

38.9Endgame89.9

141Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	134
teleop	138	190
endgame	82	89
foul	0	20
total	312	433

Result

Final score

312 – 433

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 pts