Minnesota State High School League Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

552.3 – 521.58

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

665 – 672

Prediction missed · off by 131.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 779.9 ±10.4

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 133.77Rank 11Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 173.36Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 245.17Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 722.1 ±10.4

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 128.28Rank 10Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 194.6Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 198.7Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2883, 2052, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

552.3 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2883, 2052, 7028

Auto

121.2 22%

Teleop

327.7 60%

Endgame

100.3 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5913, 6045, 4728

/ 100 compat

Projected

521.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5913, 6045, 4728

Auto

112.0 22%

Teleop

271.8 52%

Endgame

136.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score552.3pts

Blue projected score521.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.7
Score range: 462–612
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1337 vs event baseline 332.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

779.9Season APEX722.1

121.2Auto112

327.7Teleop271.8

100.3Endgame136.4

121Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	149	137
teleop	351	276
endgame	165	214
foul	0	45
total	665	672

Result

Final score

665 – 672

Prediction missed · off by 131.6 pts