Minnesota State High School League Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

426.59 – 510.61

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

327 – 549

Prediction correct · off by 69 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.4 ±10.4

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 61.55Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 195.38Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 169.66Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 722.1 ±10.4

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 124.92Rank 10Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 192.17Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 193.52Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3082, 2491, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3082, 2491, 4174

Auto

93.4 23%

Teleop

240.8 58%

Endgame

80.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5913, 6045, 4728

/ 100 compat

Projected

510.6 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5913, 6045, 4728

Auto

93.2 18%

Teleop

286.2 56%

Endgame

131.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.44 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score426.6pts

Blue projected score510.6pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84
Score range: 368–570
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 876 vs event baseline 329.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.4Season APEX722.1

93.4Auto93.2

240.8Teleop286.2

80.7Endgame131.4

143Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	154
teleop	183	242
endgame	108	148
foul	0	5
total	327	549

Result

Final score

327 – 549

Prediction correct · off by 69 pts