Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

232.39 – 201.73

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

357 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 95.4 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 573 ±14.7

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 34.58Rank 10Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 74.38Rank 11Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 123.43Rank 14Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467.7 ±11.7

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 108.29Rank 25Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 69.43Rank 5Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 24.01Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5913, 2883, 11283

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.4 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5913, 2883, 11283

Auto

34.9 15%

Teleop

134.2 58%

Endgame

62.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3130, 3297, 3082

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3130, 3297, 3082

Auto

49.2 24%

Teleop

114.1 57%

Endgame

37.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score232.4pts

Blue projected score201.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.7
Score range: 148–286
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 625 vs event baseline 301.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

573Season APEX467.7

34.9Auto49.2

134.2Teleop114.1

62.8Endgame37.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	80
teleop	186	150
endgame	95	38
foul	0	0
total	357	268

Result

Final score

357 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 95.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree