Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288 – 253.71

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 61.4 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.9 ±13.1

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 87.71Rank 29Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 106.29Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7797RipSaw Robotics

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 94Rank 20Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 512.9 ±11

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 94Rank 28Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 87.71Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 72Rank 19Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2169, 2847, 7797

/ 100 compat

Projected

288 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2169, 2847, 7797

Auto

59.7 21%

Teleop

151.7 53%

Endgame

73.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3100, 4778, 5348

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3100, 4778, 5348

Auto

48.6 19%

Teleop

135.1 54%

Endgame

65.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score288pts

Blue projected score253.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.3
Score range: 200–342
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 302.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.9Season APEX512.9

59.7Auto48.6

151.7Teleop135.1

73.7Endgame65.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	17
teleop	131	83
endgame	22	61
foul	20	0
total	258	161

Result

Final score

258 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 61.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree