Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.7 – 222.13

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.7 ±13.6

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 89.01Rank 18Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 70.94Rank 23Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7797RipSaw Robotics

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 129.75Rank 20Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.6 ±13.6

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 139.51Rank 11Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 106.65Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX -24.03Rank 36Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2239, 7257, 7797

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.7 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2239, 7257, 7797

Auto

97.2 35%

Teleop

144.0 52%

Endgame

38.4 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2883, 3293, 2480

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.1 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2883, 3293, 2480

Auto

42.1 20%

Teleop

120.0 56%

Endgame

52.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score289.7pts

Blue projected score222.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.6
Score range: 162–350
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 330.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.7Season APEX459.6

97.2Auto42.1

144Teleop120

38.4Endgame52

105Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	80
teleop	56	125
endgame	52	24
foul	0	0
total	166	229

Result

Final score

166 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 65.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree