Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

392.85 – 429.8

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

441 – 429

Prediction missed · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 670.1 ±10.4

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 181.56Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 78.09Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 133.2Rank 5Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.7 ±11.7

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 106.16Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 176.66Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 146.98Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6045, 2846, 3297

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.8 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6045, 2846, 3297

Auto

78.6 20%

Teleop

216.8 56%

Endgame

91.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2503, 2052, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.8 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2503, 2052, 2847

Auto

72.8 18%

Teleop

231.9 56%

Endgame

111.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.78 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score392.8pts

Blue projected score429.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.9
Score range: 334–489
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 870 vs event baseline 328.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

670.1Season APEX679.7

78.6Auto72.8

216.8Teleop231.9

91.1Endgame111.3

128Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	70
teleop	262	218
endgame	108	141
foul	0	0
total	441	429

Result

Final score

441 – 429

Prediction missed · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree