Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

247.59 – 275.93

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467 ±11.6

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 70.74Rank 27Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 86.11Rank 26Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 90.74Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.6 ±11.7

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 91.72Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 87.09Rank 25Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 97.12Rank 28Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3630, 5653, 4778

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.6 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3630, 5653, 4778

Auto

26.3 11%

Teleop

145.1 58%

Endgame

77.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4674, 3130, 3100

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.9 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4674, 3130, 3100

Auto

30.4 11%

Teleop

152.2 55%

Endgame

93.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.59 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score247.6pts

Blue projected score275.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.3
Score range: 189–335
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 330.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467Season APEX526.6

26.3Auto30.4

145.1Teleop152.2

77.1Endgame93.7

164Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	35
teleop	98	210
endgame	75	82
foul	0	0
total	193	327

Result

Final score

193 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree