Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

243.27 – 264.05

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.2 ±13.1

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 206.27Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX -19.17Rank 36Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 56.17Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.5 ±11

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 145.25Rank 5Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 35.44Rank 31Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 83.36Rank 26Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4728, 2480, 3082

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.3 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4728, 2480, 3082

Auto

52.1 22%

Teleop

112.1 48%

Endgame

71.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3297, 3277, 5653

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3297, 3277, 5653

Auto

85.4 32%

Teleop

111.3 42%

Endgame

66.1 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score243.3pts

Blue projected score264.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.8
Score range: 179–328
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 356.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.2Season APEX562.5

52.1Auto85.4

112.1Teleop111.3

71.7Endgame66.1

130Consistency182

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	101
teleop	97	107
endgame	47	35
foul	0	0
total	167	243

Result

Final score

167 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree