Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

272.79 – 412.37

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

302 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 595 ±10.4

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 27.45Rank 31Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 59.74Rank 19Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 185.6Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 570 ±12.4

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 21.67Rank 34Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 267.26Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 123.44Rank 10Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3277, 5348, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3277, 5348, 2491

Auto

60.7 23%

Teleop

142.7 53%

Endgame

63.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4741, 7028, 5913

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.4 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4741, 7028, 5913

Auto

83.9 20%

Teleop

219.5 54%

Endgame

106.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score272.8pts

Blue projected score412.4pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139.6
Score range: 214–471
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 653 vs event baseline 330.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

595Season APEX570

60.7Auto83.9

142.7Teleop219.5

63.5Endgame106.7

127Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	169
teleop	121	140
endgame	64	37
foul	20	5
total	302	351

Result

Final score

302 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree