Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

320.79 – 387.4

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

429 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 93.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 548.9 ±10.4

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 171.25Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 120.01Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 29.53Rank 29Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.9 ±15.6

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 165.94Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 60.03Rank 32Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 161.43Rank 14Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4728, 2472, 2169

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4728, 2472, 2169

Auto

69.6 21%

Teleop

188.7 58%

Endgame

65.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4174, 3926, 11283

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.4 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4174, 3926, 11283

Auto

62.4 16%

Teleop

219.2 58%

Endgame

98.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.62 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score320.8pts

Blue projected score387.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.6
Score range: 262–446
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 895 vs event baseline 326.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

548.9Season APEX439.9

69.6Auto62.4

188.7Teleop219.2

65.5Endgame98.2

84Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	109
teleop	206	287
endgame	141	70
foul	0	0
total	429	466

Result

Final score

429 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 93.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree