Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.92 – 276.94

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

429 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 148.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.9 ±10.4

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 31.45Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 37.12Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 83.35Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.9 ±12.9

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 119.82Rank 33Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 46.19Rank 30Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 110.93Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3082, 3276, 2220

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3082, 3276, 2220

Auto

54.0 36%

Teleop

64.5 43%

Endgame

30.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4607, 7858, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.9 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4607, 7858, 2530

Auto

58.7 21%

Teleop

133.6 48%

Endgame

83.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score151.9pts

Blue projected score276.9pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125
Score range: 93–336
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 686 vs event baseline 326.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.9Season APEX476.9

54Auto58.7

64.5Teleop133.6

30.9Endgame83.8

92Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	72
teleop	203	120
endgame	143	65
foul	15	0
total	429	257

Result

Final score

429 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 148.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree