Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.56 – 280.89

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

285 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 570.4 ±11

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 81.25Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 88.42Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 128.89Rank 10Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456 ±12.9

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 40.89Rank 34Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 94.81Rank 26Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 145.19Rank 11Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2846, 4778, 5913

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.6 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2846, 4778, 5913

Auto

55.6 19%

Teleop

141.3 47%

Endgame

103.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4741, 5653, 2883

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.9 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4741, 5653, 2883

Auto

40.7 14%

Teleop

133.4 47%

Endgame

107.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score298.6pts

Blue projected score280.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.7
Score range: 222–358
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 327.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

570.4Season APEX456

55.6Auto40.7

141.3Teleop133.4

103.1Endgame107.4

135Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	54
teleop	132	114
endgame	76	70
foul	0	0
total	285	238

Result

Final score

285 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree