Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

354.83 – 385

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

332 – 454

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.8 ±11

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 92.84Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 127.13Rank 33Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 134.86Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 665.1 ±10.4

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 74.46Rank 27Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 139.93Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 170.61Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2220, 4607, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.8 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2220, 4607, 2472

Auto

73.7 21%

Teleop

224.6 63%

Endgame

55.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3630, 2847, 4728

/ 100 compat

Projected

385 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3630, 2847, 4728

Auto

68.9 18%

Teleop

212.3 56%

Endgame

99.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.89 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score354.8pts

Blue projected score385pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.2
Score range: 297–443
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 786 vs event baseline 324.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.8Season APEX665.1

73.7Auto68.9

224.6Teleop212.3

55.9Endgame99.6

79Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	70
teleop	172	328
endgame	96	56
foul	0	0
total	332	454

Result

Final score

332 – 454

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree