Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

441.36 – 459.15

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

307 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 124.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520 ±14.7

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 59.73Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 174.36Rank 14Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 207.27Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 745.4 ±10.4

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 196.68Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 211.74Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 50.73Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3082, 11283, 2052

/ 100 compat

Projected

441.4 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3082, 11283, 2052

Auto

44.3 10%

Teleop

275.0 64%

Endgame

109.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4174, 2491, 3276

/ 100 compat

Projected

459.2 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4174, 2491, 3276

Auto

84.4 19%

Teleop

266.8 59%

Endgame

103.8 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.8 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score441.4pts

Blue projected score459.2pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.8
Score range: 383–517
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 651 vs event baseline 324.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520Season APEX745.4

44.3Auto84.4

275Teleop266.8

109.9Endgame103.8

144Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	108
teleop	156	184
endgame	56	52
foul	0	0
total	307	344

Result

Final score

307 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 124.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree