Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

343.34 – 214.29

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

578 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 133.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 574.6 ±11.7

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 37.86Rank 32Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 79.11Rank 5Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 226.37Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.2 ±13.4

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 78.49Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 100.18Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 35.62Rank 34Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3926, 3297, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.3 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3926, 3297, 7028

Auto

116.3 34%

Teleop

182.1 53%

Endgame

43.6 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4778, 3293, 4741

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.3 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4778, 3293, 4741

Auto

41.9 20%

Teleop

90.9 43%

Endgame

78.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score343.3pts

Blue projected score214.3pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129
Score range: 155–402
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 824 vs event baseline 325.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

574.6Season APEX334.2

116.3Auto41.9

182.1Teleop90.9

43.6Endgame78.8

156Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	38
teleop	345	130
endgame	120	63
foul	15	15
total	578	246

Result

Final score

578 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 133.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree