Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

301.83 – 311.49

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 204

Prediction missed · off by 56.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.9 ±11

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 178.65Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 80.05Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 43.13Rank 29Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583.7 ±10.4

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 139.45Rank 10Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 51.58Rank 23Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 120.46Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2052, 4778, 2169

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.8 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2052, 4778, 2169

Auto

63.8 21%

Teleop

161.4 53%

Endgame

76.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5913, 7257, 2220

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.5 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5913, 7257, 2220

Auto

86.1 28%

Teleop

148.4 48%

Endgame

72.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score301.8pts

Blue projected score311.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.7
Score range: 238–375
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 511 vs event baseline 356.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.9Season APEX583.7

63.8Auto86.1

161.4Teleop148.4

76.5Endgame72.1

155Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	58
teleop	156	126
endgame	71	20
foul	5	0
total	307	204

Result

Final score

307 – 204

Prediction missed · off by 56.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree