Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

212.44 – 344

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

349 – 428

Prediction correct · off by 110.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 569 ±11.6

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 69.75Rank 26Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 32.39Rank 19Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 110.3Rank 33Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 554.7 ±11.7

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 123.21Rank 11Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 100.96Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 119.83Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5653, 5348, 4607

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.4 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5653, 5348, 4607

Auto

30.0 15%

Teleop

103.6 52%

Endgame

64.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2883, 2503, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

344 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2883, 2503, 2472

Auto

59.4 17%

Teleop

178.4 52%

Endgame

104.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score212.4pts

Blue projected score344pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.6
Score range: 154–402
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 777 vs event baseline 322.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

569Season APEX554.7

30Auto59.4

103.6Teleop178.4

64.9Endgame104.7

185Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	77
teleop	184	246
endgame	90	105
foul	10	0
total	349	428

Result

Final score

349 – 428

Prediction correct · off by 110.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree