Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.34 – 154.25

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

505 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 198.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.2 ±10.4

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 46.15Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 170Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 72.19Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.1 ±16.7

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 42.74Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 142.72Rank 14Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX -31.21Rank 36Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2220, 4174, 4674

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.3 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2220, 4174, 4674

Auto

53.9 19%

Teleop

179.5 64%

Endgame

45.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2846, 11283, 2480

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2846, 11283, 2480

Auto

34.8 24%

Teleop

54.8 39%

Endgame

52.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.77 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score288.3pts

Blue projected score154.3pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 134.1
Score range: 97–345
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 839 vs event baseline 319.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.2Season APEX392.1

53.9Auto34.8

179.5Teleop54.8

45.9Endgame52.5

152Consistency167

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	35
teleop	312	197
endgame	107	102
foul	5	0
total	505	334

Result

Final score

505 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 198.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree