Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

341.99 – 352.19

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

245 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 72.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.9 ±11.7

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 77.08Rank 31Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 102.91Rank 25Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 162Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 554.6 ±11

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 46.65Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 213.29Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 92.25Rank 18Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3277, 3130, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

342 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3277, 3130, 2847

Auto

81.5 25%

Teleop

186.6 56%

Endgame

63.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3276, 2052, 2239

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.2 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3276, 2052, 2239

Auto

79.2 22%

Teleop

179.7 51%

Endgame

94.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score342pts

Blue projected score352.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.2
Score range: 286–408
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 646 vs event baseline 309.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.9Season APEX554.6

81.5Auto79.2

186.6Teleop179.7

63Endgame94.9

176Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	106
teleop	88	237
endgame	98	58
foul	0	0
total	245	401

Result

Final score

245 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 72.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree