Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.5 – 202.13

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

287 – 353

Prediction missed · off by 75.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 525.4 ±11.6

5653Iron Mosquitos

Season APEX 190.4Event APEX 103.64Rank 26Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 48.52Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 134.34Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 638.3 ±10.4

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 52.1Rank 5Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX -3.73Rank 19Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 153.76Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5653, 2220, 3293

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.5 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5653, 2220, 3293

Auto

71.7 26%

Teleop

149.4 55%

Endgame

51.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3297, 5348, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.1 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3297, 5348, 4174

Auto

48.2 26%

Teleop

104.9 56%

Endgame

34.4 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score286.5pts

Blue projected score202.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.4
Score range: 146–343
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 640 vs event baseline 309.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

525.4Season APEX638.3

71.7Auto48.2

149.4Teleop104.9

51.8Endgame34.4

113Consistency250

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	100
teleop	126	237
endgame	117	16
foul	0	0
total	287	353

Result

Final score

287 – 353

Prediction missed · off by 75.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree