Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

367.69 – 81.27

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

607 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 143.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 569.9 ±14.7

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 83.59Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 179.91Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 104.19Rank 14Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.1 ±15.2

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 29.85Rank 30Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX -44.91Rank 36Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 96.33Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2472, 2491, 11283

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.7 pts

~3.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2472, 2491, 11283

Auto

99.4 28%

Teleop

178.0 49%

Endgame

83.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7858, 2480, 4778

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7858, 2480, 4778

Auto

8.8 11%

Teleop

44.8 54%

Endgame

28.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.1 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score367.7pts

Blue projected score81.3pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 286.4
Score range: 26–423
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 736 vs event baseline 306.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

569.9Season APEX279.1

99.4Auto8.8

178Teleop44.8

83.3Endgame28.8

120Consistency189

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	15
teleop	398	51
endgame	172	63
foul	0	0
total	607	129

Result

Final score

607 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 143.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree