Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.47 – 202.18

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

461 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 110.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 650.4 ±10.4

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 22.61Rank 23Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 122.66Rank 11Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 118.2Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.1 ±10.4

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 85.81Rank 31Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 76.77Rank 27Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 39.6Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7257, 2883, 6045

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.5 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7257, 2883, 6045

Auto

67.1 26%

Teleop

151.6 60%

Endgame

35.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3277, 3630, 3276

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.2 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3277, 3630, 3276

Auto

62.5 32%

Teleop

119.7 62%

Endgame

11.1 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score263.5pts

Blue projected score202.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.3
Score range: 148–317
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 640 vs event baseline 300.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

650.4Season APEX545.1

67.1Auto62.5

151.6Teleop119.7

35.3Endgame11.1

127Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	47
teleop	239	88
endgame	109	44
foul	5	0
total	461	179

Result

Final score

461 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 110.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree