Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

387.38 – 309.11

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

461 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 80.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 622.4 ±11.7

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 71.4Rank 10Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 222.23Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 93.75Rank 25Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.2 ±12.2

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 135.98Rank 33Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 63.47Rank 32Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 109.66Rank 28Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5913, 2052, 3130

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.4 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5913, 2052, 3130

Auto

90.3 23%

Teleop

218.7 57%

Endgame

75.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4607, 3926, 3100

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4607, 3926, 3100

Auto

36.3 11%

Teleop

174.6 55%

Endgame

106.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score387.4pts

Blue projected score309.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.3
Score range: 255–441
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 683 vs event baseline 298.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

622.4Season APEX495.2

90.3Auto36.3

218.7Teleop174.6

75.5Endgame106.3

167Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	55
teleop	288	101
endgame	124	56
foul	0	10
total	461	222

Result

Final score

461 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 80.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree