Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

301.11 – 355.55

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

252 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 588.9 ±10.4

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 61.87Rank 19Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 99.81Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 139.43Rank 11Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 615.7 ±12.4

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 154.28Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 166.56Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 34.71Rank 30Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5348, 4674, 2883

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.1 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5348, 4674, 2883

Auto

56.9 19%

Teleop

174.3 60%

Endgame

61.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2847, 4174, 7858

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.6 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2847, 4174, 7858

Auto

77.9 22%

Teleop

197.5 57%

Endgame

72.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.56 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score301.1pts

Blue projected score355.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.4
Score range: 237–420
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 624 vs event baseline 356.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

588.9Season APEX615.7

56.9Auto77.9

174.3Teleop197.5

61.7Endgame72.7

109Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	70
teleop	150	208
endgame	61	89
foul	10	5
total	252	372

Result

Final score

252 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree