Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

245.4 – 206.9

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 431

Prediction missed · off by 154.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.7 ±12.4

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 61.82Rank 34Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 62.47Rank 29Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 121.11Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 524 ±11

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 98.84Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 53.53Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 54.53Rank 18Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4741, 2169, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4741, 2169, 2530

Auto

53.0 21%

Teleop

104.2 42%

Endgame

90.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2847, 4674, 2239

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.9 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2847, 4674, 2239

Auto

67.5 36%

Teleop

72.7 39%

Endgame

45.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score245.4pts

Blue projected score206.9pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.5
Score range: 153–299
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 592 vs event baseline 298.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.7Season APEX524

53Auto67.5

104.2Teleop72.7

90Endgame45.4

130Consistency219

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	104
teleop	59	230
endgame	56	97
foul	0	0
total	161	431

Result

Final score

161 – 431

Prediction missed · off by 154.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree