Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

266.56 – 294.72

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

185 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 78.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.8 ±12.4

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 110.75Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 41.2Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 114.61Rank 30Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 533.3 ±11

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 121.54Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 98.63Rank 27Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 74.55Rank 5Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2472, 3276, 7858

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.6 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2472, 3276, 7858

Auto

52.2 19%

Teleop

135.7 50%

Endgame

82.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3293, 3630, 3297

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.7 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3293, 3630, 3297

Auto

78.7 28%

Teleop

183.7 65%

Endgame

19.7 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.77 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score266.6pts

Blue projected score294.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.2
Score range: 214–348
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 292.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.8Season APEX533.3

52.2Auto78.7

135.7Teleop183.7

82.8Endgame19.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	77
teleop	89	137
endgame	39	1
foul	0	5
total	185	220

Result

Final score

185 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 78.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree