Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

337.47 – 56.5

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 121.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.7 ±12.2

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 77.29Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 138.12Rank 33Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 122.06Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357 ±12.2

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 18.31Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3277ProDigi

Season APEX 160.5Event APEX 46.07Rank 31Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX -7.88Rank 32Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2503, 4607, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.5 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2503, 4607, 2846

Auto

77.5 24%

Teleop

184.7 57%

Endgame

59.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4778, 3277, 3926

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.5 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4778, 3277, 3926

Auto

29.5 52%

Teleop

17.9 32%

Endgame

8.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.99 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score337.5pts

Blue projected score56.5pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 281
Score range: 4–390
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 588 vs event baseline 292.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.7Season APEX357

77.5Auto29.5

184.7Teleop17.9

59.9Endgame8.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	59
teleop	143	127
endgame	134	89
foul	0	0
total	313	275

Result

Final score

313 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 121.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree