Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.58 – 380.56

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

135 – 506

Prediction correct · off by 75.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.6 ±14.7

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX -6.85Rank 36Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 96.1Rank 28Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 71.33Rank 34Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 675 ±10.4

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 185.16Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 91.16Rank 11Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 104.24Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2480, 3100, 4741

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.6 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2480, 3100, 4741

Auto

8.7 5%

Teleop

94.4 56%

Endgame

65.2 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2052, 2883, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.6 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2052, 2883, 2530

Auto

52.3 14%

Teleop

206.3 54%

Endgame

123.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score160.6pts

Blue projected score380.6pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -220
Score range: 109–433
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 641 vs event baseline 290.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.6Season APEX675

8.7Auto52.3

94.4Teleop206.3

65.2Endgame123.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	83
teleop	66	290
endgame	58	133
foul	0	0
total	135	506

Result

Final score

135 – 506

Prediction correct · off by 75.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree