Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

327.82 – 210.01

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 677.7 ±10.4

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 98.57Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 147.52Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 81.73Rank 15Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.1 ±11

2169KING TeC

Season APEX 117Event APEX 50.21Rank 29Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 84Rank 10Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 75.8Rank 18Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4728, 6045, 4674

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.8 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4728, 6045, 4674

Auto

28.4 9%

Teleop

208.2 64%

Endgame

89.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2169, 5913, 2239

/ 100 compat

Projected

210 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2169, 5913, 2239

Auto

67.4 32%

Teleop

101.6 49%

Endgame

39.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.64 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score327.8pts

Blue projected score210pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.8
Score range: 158–380
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 592 vs event baseline 289.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

677.7Season APEX410.1

28.4Auto67.4

208.2Teleop101.6

89.2Endgame39.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	101
teleop	161	106
endgame	77	57
foul	10	0
total	328	264

Result

Final score

328 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree