Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.24 – 394.61

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

277 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 122.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.7 ±10.4

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 81.06Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 49.59Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 31.59Rank 19Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.6 ±15.6

11283Melrose Gear Grinders

Provisional

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 170.88Rank 14Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3130The ERRORs

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 112.83Rank 25Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 110.9Rank 23Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2847, 3082, 5348

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.2 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2847, 3082, 5348

Auto

33.1 21%

Teleop

98.3 62%

Endgame

28.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11283, 3130, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.6 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11283, 3130, 7257

Auto

72.2 18%

Teleop

229.4 58%

Endgame

96.0 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score162.2pts

Blue projected score394.6pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -232.4
Score range: 110–447
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 542 vs event baseline 291.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.7Season APEX409.6

33.1Auto72.2

98.3Teleop229.4

28.3Endgame96

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	101
teleop	122	117
endgame	81	32
foul	40	15
total	277	265

Result

Final score

277 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 122.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree