Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

303.59 – 273.31

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

376 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 87.1 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 631.4 ±11

3293OtterBots

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 100.38Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 103.75Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 99.46Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 619.9 ±11

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 88.41Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 84.52Rank 27Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4607C.I.S.

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 100.38Rank 33Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3293, 4174, 2846

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.6 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3293, 4174, 2846

Auto

67.9 22%

Teleop

174.9 57%

Endgame

64.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2491, 3630, 4607

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.3 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2491, 3630, 4607

Auto

49.5 18%

Teleop

150.8 54%

Endgame

76.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score303.6pts

Blue projected score273.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.3
Score range: 222–355
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 751 vs event baseline 283.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

631.4Season APEX619.9

67.9Auto49.5

174.9Teleop150.8

64.7Endgame76.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	77
teleop	175	244
endgame	75	39
foul	30	15
total	376	375

Result

Final score

376 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 87.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree