Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

267.08 – 91.17

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 98.5 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.6 ±13.5

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 61.71Rank 32Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4741WingNuts

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 105.95Rank 34Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 83

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 99.42Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.4 ±14.1

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 12.45Rank 36Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 17.01Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2503Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 61.71Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3926, 4741, 3276

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.1 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3926, 4741, 3276

Auto

31.5 12%

Teleop

142.1 53%

Endgame

96.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2480, 2220, 2503

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.2 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2480, 2220, 2503

Auto

11.4 12%

Teleop

54.0 59%

Endgame

26.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.52 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score267.1pts

Blue projected score91.2pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.9
Score range: 37–321
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 302.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.6Season APEX372.4

31.5Auto11.4

142.1Teleop54

96.4Endgame26.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	26
teleop	17	48
endgame	46	12
foul	0	20
total	85	106

Result

Final score

85 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 98.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree