Minnesota State High School League Championship

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

300.58 – 459.57

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

329 – 396

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 534.1 ±13.1

3276TOOLCATS

Season APEX 231Event APEX 89.06Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7797RipSaw Robotics

Season APEX 86.6Event APEX 110.25Rank 20Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 101.27Rank 28Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 695.2 ±10.4

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 126.69Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 82.19Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 250.69Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3276, 7797, 3100

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3276, 7797, 3100

Auto

54.5 18%

Teleop

156.7 53%

Endgame

85.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2472, 2846, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

459.6 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2472, 2846, 7028

Auto

100.6 22%

Teleop

235.5 52%

Endgame

121.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score300.6pts

Blue projected score459.6pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -159
Score range: 237–524
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 725 vs event baseline 356.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

534.1Season APEX695.2

54.5Auto100.6

156.7Teleop235.5

85.7Endgame121

106Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	115
teleop	167	188
endgame	98	93
foul	0	0
total	329	396

Result

Final score

329 – 396

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree