Minnesota State High School League Championship

Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

550.27 – 575.04

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

563 – 525

Prediction missed · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 722.1 ±10.4

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 138.41Rank 10Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 205.99Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 205.87Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 779.9 ±10.4

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 141.56Rank 11Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 180.47Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 253.01Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5913, 6045, 4728

/ 100 compat

Projected

550.3 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5913, 6045, 4728

Auto

109.3 20%

Teleop

261.8 48%

Endgame

168.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2883, 2052, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

575 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2883, 2052, 7028

Auto

138.7 24%

Teleop

318.0 55%

Endgame

117.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.72 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score550.3pts

Blue projected score575pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.8
Score range: 487–638
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1088 vs event baseline 352.6.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

722.1Season APEX779.9

109.3Auto138.7

261.8Teleop318

168.7Endgame117.7

73Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	138	162
teleop	233	236
endgame	187	127
foul	5	0
total	563	525

Result

Final score

563 – 525

Prediction missed · off by 31.4 pts