Minnesota State High School League Championship

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

556.28 – 569.67

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

521 – 605

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 722.1 ±10.4

5913Patriotics

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 140.8Rank 10Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6045Sabre Robotics

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 208.17Rank 3Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 207.31Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 779.9 ±10.4

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 139.74Rank 11Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2052KnightKrawler

Season APEX 267.9Event APEX 179.02Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7028Binary Battalion

Season APEX 289.5Event APEX 250.91Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5913, 6045, 4728

/ 100 compat

Projected

556.3 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5913, 6045, 4728

Auto

113.8 21%

Teleop

267.4 49%

Endgame

165.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2883, 2052, 7028

/ 100 compat

Projected

569.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2883, 2052, 7028

Auto

136.4 24%

Teleop

314.3 55%

Endgame

118.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score556.3pts

Blue projected score569.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample100alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.4
Score range: 493–633
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1126 vs event baseline 348.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

722.1Season APEX779.9

113.8Auto136.4

267.4Teleop314.3

165.6Endgame118.1

61Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	150
teleop	234	338
endgame	185	117
foul	15	0
total	521	605

Result

Final score

521 – 605

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts