Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.11 – 200.72

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.4 ±13.9

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 26.6Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 74.54Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 57.97Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397 ±12.8

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 97.57Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 79.88Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 23.27Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2470, 2855, 4009

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2470, 2855, 4009

Auto

18.7 13%

Teleop

81.2 57%

Endgame

43.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2823, 2846, 2508

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2823, 2846, 2508

Auto

54.9 29%

Teleop

100.4 53%

Endgame

35.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score159.1pts

Blue projected score200.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.6
Score range: 133–227
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 141.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.4Season APEX397

18.7Auto54.9

81.2Teleop100.4

43.4Endgame35.7

106Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	57
teleop	74	75
endgame	51	42
foul	15	5
total	154	179

Result

Final score

154 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 pts

Match videos

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