Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.77 – 265.11

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±15.3

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 7.81Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4215TRIBOTS

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 61.07Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 51.89Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.9 ±11

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 136.26Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 86.1Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 42.75Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2239, 4215, 3926

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2239, 4215, 3926

Auto

32.9 27%

Teleop

53.9 44%

Endgame

36.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3297, 3082, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3297, 3082, 7530

Auto

55.0 21%

Teleop

157.4 59%

Endgame

54.5 20%

Strengths

· 3297 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score120.8pts

Blue projected score265.1pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -144.3
Score range: 95–291
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 141.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205Season APEX417.9

32.9Auto55

53.9Teleop157.4

36.4Endgame54.5

86Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	16
teleop	49	91
endgame	32	77
foul	5	0
total	112	184

Result

Final score

112 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 pts

Match videos

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