Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

393.59 – 165.62

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 129.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.4 ±13.1

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 43.82Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 174.07Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 175.7Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.4 ±13.9

2470Team BJORG

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 30.68Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2855BEASTBOT

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 76.21Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4009DNA Robotics

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 58.73Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2480, 4174, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2480, 4174, 2491

Auto

57.3 15%

Teleop

227.3 59%

Endgame

99.1 26%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2470, 2855, 4009

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2470, 2855, 4009

Auto

19.8 13%

Teleop

84.7 56%

Endgame

46.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score393.6pts

Blue projected score165.6pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 228
Score range: 141–419
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 141.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.4Season APEX311.4

57.3Auto19.8

227.3Teleop84.7

99.1Endgame46.4

0Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	16
teleop	89	72
endgame	34	32
foul	5	20
total	161	140

Result

Final score

161 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 129.1 pts

Match videos

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