Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.48 – 217.05

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

148 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 72.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.3 ±13.9

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 53.08Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 76.61Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 77.79Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±12.2

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 17.53Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 101.8Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 97.72Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4663, 2181, 5690

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4663, 2181, 5690

Auto

38.4 20%

Teleop

101.0 52%

Endgame

53.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7849, 4778, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7849, 4778, 2530

Auto

27.4 13%

Teleop

123.2 59%

Endgame

59.7 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score207.5pts

Blue projected score217.1pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.6
Score range: 182–242
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 139.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.3Season APEX369

38.4Auto27.4

101Teleop123.2

53.2Endgame59.7

84Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	57
teleop	28	161
endgame	55	74
foul	0	10
total	148	302

Result

Final score

148 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 72.2 pts

Match videos

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