Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.84 – 194.72

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.9 ±11

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 126.1Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 73.61Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 38.13Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.6 ±14.5

7068Mechanical Masterminds

Season APEX 81Event APEX 39.74Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4539KAOTIC Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 70.46Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2509Tigerbots

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 84.52Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3297, 3082, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3297, 3082, 7530

Auto

54.9 23%

Teleop

141.8 59%

Endgame

44.3 18%

Strengths

· 3297 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7068, 4539, 2509

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7068, 4539, 2509

Auto

45.7 24%

Teleop

96.9 51%

Endgame

46.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score237.8pts

Blue projected score194.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.1
Score range: 170–263
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 508 vs event baseline 138.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.9Season APEX296.6

54.9Auto45.7

141.8Teleop96.9

44.3Endgame46.7

8Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	44
teleop	188	70
endgame	79	71
foul	0	0
total	323	185

Result

Final score

323 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 pts

Match videos

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