Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.62 – 111.54

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397 ±12.8

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 105.08Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 83.42Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 26.12Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±15.3

2239Technocrats

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 7.67Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4215TRIBOTS

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 54.91Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3926MPArors

Season APEX 73.5Event APEX 48.96Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2823, 2846, 2508

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2823, 2846, 2508

Auto

53.5 26%

Teleop

107.1 52%

Endgame

46.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2239, 4215, 3926

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2239, 4215, 3926

Auto

30.4 27%

Teleop

51.9 45%

Endgame

32.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score214.6pts

Blue projected score111.5pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.1
Score range: 87–240
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 138.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397Season APEX205

53.5Auto30.4

107.1Teleop51.9

46.4Endgame32.4

27Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	40
teleop	53	53
endgame	10	42
foul	25	0
total	132	135

Result

Final score

132 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 53 pts

Match videos

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