Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.63 – 160.25

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

419 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.4 ±13.1

2480Iron Paws

Season APEX 69Event APEX 39.94Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 170.92Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2491NoMythic

Season APEX 261.1Event APEX 172.77Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257 ±14.5

2181GEARS

Season APEX 95.4Event APEX 74.55Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5929Raider Robotics

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 12.32Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5690SubZero Robotics

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 73.38Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2480, 4174, 2491

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2480, 4174, 2491

Auto

52.8 14%

Teleop

220.3 60%

Endgame

96.6 26%

Strengths

· 2491 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2181, 5929, 5690

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2181, 5929, 5690

Auto

32.5 22%

Teleop

84.0 58%

Endgame

29.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score383.6pts

Blue projected score160.3pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 223.4
Score range: 136–408
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 619 vs event baseline 135.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.4Season APEX257

52.8Auto32.5

220.3Teleop84

96.6Endgame29.3

9Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	24
teleop	236	84
endgame	110	47
foul	0	45
total	419	200

Result

Final score

419 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Match videos

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