Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.89 – 220.49

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 89.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.9 ±11

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 125.83Rank 4Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3082Chicken Bot Pie

Season APEX 139Event APEX 75.98Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7530Raiders of the Lost Spark

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 32.08Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±12.2

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 14.95Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 105.54Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 100Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3297, 3082, 7530

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3297, 3082, 7530

Auto

43.9 19%

Teleop

130.5 56%

Endgame

60.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7849, 4778, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7849, 4778, 2530

Auto

36.7 17%

Teleop

120.4 57%

Endgame

55.8 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score233.9pts

Blue projected score220.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.4
Score range: 194–260
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 143.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.9Season APEX369

43.9Auto36.7

130.5Teleop120.4

60.1Endgame55.8

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	38
teleop	53	54
endgame	40	27
foul	25	0
total	156	119

Result

Final score

156 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 89.7 pts

Match videos

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