Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.88 – 198.76

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±12.2

7849Da Vinci's Creation

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 18.82Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4778Stormbots

Season APEX 123Event APEX 109.23Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 103.83Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397 ±12.8

2823The Automatons

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 95.68Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2846FireBears

Season APEX 210Event APEX 80.64Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 22.44Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7849, 4778, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7849, 4778, 2530

Auto

34.5 15%

Teleop

128.1 57%

Endgame

60.5 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2823, 2846, 2508

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2823, 2846, 2508

Auto

55.3 29%

Teleop

97.7 51%

Endgame

37.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score231.9pts

Blue projected score198.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.1
Score range: 173–258
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 143.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369Season APEX397

34.5Auto55.3

128.1Teleop97.7

60.5Endgame37.3

15Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	42
teleop	73	59
endgame	29	43
foul	0	5
total	151	149

Result

Final score

151 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 pts

Match videos

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